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        经济学人下载:第二十二条军规(2)

        Source: Economist    2019-05-22  我要投稿   论坛   Favorite  

        In truth, Mr Khan's government tried hard to keep its distance from the fund.
        事实上,伊姆兰·汗的政府曾力图与IMF保持距离。

        Instead of agreeing to a deal as soon as it came to power last August,
        伊姆兰·汗政府没有在去年8月上任后立马同意该协议,

        it turned for help to friendly countries, including Saudi Arabia (which gave $3bn and deferred a similar amount of oil payments),
        而是寻求友国的帮助,如沙特阿拉伯(该国提供了30亿美元并推迟了类似金额的石油付款),

        the United Arab Emirates ($2bn already and more to come) and China ($2.2bn).
        阿拉伯联合酋长国(提供提供了20亿美元,后续还有更多)以及中国(22亿美元)。

        China is investing heavily in Pakistan's roads, ports and power plants:
        中国正大举投资巴基斯坦的公路、港口和发电厂:

        the so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Some view this lending with suspicion,
        即所谓的中巴经济走廊(CPEC)。一些人对这种贷款持怀疑态度,

        seeing Pakistan as a victim of China's "debt-trap diplomacy".
        认为巴基斯坦是中国债务陷阱外交的受害者。

        Such an assessment seems premature. CPEC spending may have contributed to the increase in Pakistan's imports
        这种评价似乎不够成熟。CPEC的支出已经促进了巴基斯坦的出口增长

        (the country's current-account deficit exceeded 6% of GDP in the year to June 2018).
        (截至2018年6月,该国经常账户赤字超过了GDP的6%)

        But because this import spending was presumably matched by an inflow of Chinese capital,
        但因为这种出口支出可能与中国资本的流入相匹配,

        it cannot have been responsible for the dangerous dwindling of Pakistan's foreign-currency reserves over the past year.
        所以不能为过去一年巴基斯坦外币储备金的减少负责。

        That was Pakistan's own fault. The previous government maintained an exchange rate that was too strong for exporters
        这是巴基斯坦自己的错误。上届政府维持的汇率对出口商来说过于坚挺

        and fiscal spending that was too strong for its revenue-raising powers.
        并且财政支出过于强劲,无法提高财政收入。

        Restoring stability was always going to require the kind of painful policy reforms the IMF often prescribes and oversees.
        恢复稳定总需要IMF经常规定和监督的那种痛苦的政策改革。

        Not that the IMF will find it easy. Pakistan is a regular taker of its loans but not a diligent follower of its advice.
        这对IMF来说也并非易事。巴基斯坦经常从IMF借贷,却不愿遵守它的建议。

        Many of the reforms it has just promised have been pledged repeatedly before, including widening the tax net,
        其刚承诺的很多改革之前就已经重复承诺过,包括扩大税收网络、

        rationalising utility prices and respecting the central bank's autonomy.
        公共设施价格合理化以及尊重中央银行的自主权。

        Successive governments have been slow to follow through, afraid of angering powerful domestic constituencies.
        由于担心激怒强大的国内选民,历届政府在贯彻执行方面一直行动迟缓。

        But the IMF has been similarly reluctant to cut Pakistan off, for fear of the upheaval that would ensue.
        但由于担心随之而来的动荡,IMF也同样不愿切断对巴基斯坦的援助。

        "Governments have tried to 'game' the IMF, and achieved partial success each time,"
        “各国政府一直试图‘玩弄’ IMF,每次都取得了部分成功,”

        write Ehtisham Ahmad and Azizali Mohammed, former IMF advisers.
        前IMF顾问Ehtisham Ahmad和Azizali Mohammed写到。

        Pakistan's public might dislike the IMF less, if they knew how frequently their leaders disregard it.
        如果巴基斯坦民众知道他们的领导人轻视IMF的频率有多频繁,他们或许就没那么讨厌IMF了。


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